Heard about the spring update and wondering if it changes your tax? It didn’t. Here’s what it did cover, and what’s worth doing with it.
In 2026 it was called the Spring Forecast. It updated the outlook for the economy and public finances, and tax changes were left for the autumn Budget. The figures below are the March forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), not what has happened since.
Nothing, for any of these. Here’s what applies instead.
No change
No change to Income Tax, National Insurance or allowances. Your 2026/27 rates were already set.
HMRC: Income Tax rates and Personal Allowances (opens in a new tab)No change
No change to how rental profit is taxed. The new property income rates from Budget 2025 still start on 6 April 2027.
HMRC: tax rate changes for property, savings and dividend income (opens in a new tab)No change
No change to payroll. The £12.71 National Living Wage from 1 April 2026 was set before the forecast.
GOV.UK: National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates (opens in a new tab)No change
No change to Corporation Tax or dividend tax. The higher dividend rates from Budget 2025 started on 6 April 2026.
HMRC: Tax on dividends (opens in a new tab)A national forecast is useful background for your own plans. It doesn’t change how your tax is worked out, or tell you what your own sales and costs will do.
March 2026 forecast
The OBR expected the economy to grow 1.1% in 2026, down from the 1.4% it forecast in November 2025. It expected 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, then 1.5% in 2029 and 2030.
Put a cautious sales figure alongside your main forecast, and see what late-paying customers would do to your bank balance.
March 2026 forecast
The OBR expected inflation to get back to 2% in late 2026. That was a forecast, and energy prices, trade and markets could all move it.
Look at your own rent, supplier and wage costs. A national figure won’t tell you whether yours will fall.
Forecast risks
The OBR pointed to a wide range of possible outcomes, including risks from conflict in the Middle East, productivity, interest rates and trade.
Keep some cash in reserve, and test loan renewals and big purchases against more than one outcome.
Separate the sales you expect from the cash you’ll actually receive. Add the dates of tax bills, loan repayments and planned spending.
Work from this tax year’s rates and HMRC guidance. A spring forecast doesn’t change your payroll settings or what you have to file.
If you run a company, look at expected profit, salary, dividends and big spending in one go, so the personal and business sides add up.
The next Budget is on 28 October 2026. The date is confirmed, but nothing in it is known until it’s delivered, so keep plans flexible.
Checked 5 October 2026
Ring us with what you’re weighing up. We’ll go through it with this year’s rules and your own figures.